Context:

Ethiopia is on the brink of civil war, threatening the stability of one of the world’s most strategic regions, the Horn of Africa, and the fracturing of one of the continent’s most powerful and populous countries.

About

• Ethiopia is Africa’s oldest independent country and its second-largest in terms of population.
• Apart from a five-year occupation by Mussolini’s Italy, it has never been colonized.
• It has a unique cultural heritage, being the home of the Ethiopian Orthodox Church – one of the oldest Christian denominations – and a monarchy that ended only in the coup of 1974.

The conflict started in Tigray

• The leaders of Tigray dominated Ethiopia for many years until Mr. Abiy came to power in 2018 on the back of anti-government protests and curbed their influence.
• The conflict escalated in September when Tigray held local elections in insubordination of the Ethiopian federal government.
• These elections were considered “illegal” by the federal government, further leading to conflict with Tigray authorities.
• The structure of Ethiopia’s federal system allows the country’s ten regions significant autonomy.

Consequences for the rest of Africa

• Few regions are more vulnerable than the Horn of Africa.
• Ethiopia’s neighbors include Somalia- Ethiopian forces have reportedly begun withdrawing from that country to return home and Sudan, facing a huge political transition.
• Neighbouring Eritrea has shown little sign of opening up after making peace with Ethiopia in 2018, and its government and the Tigray one don’t get along.
• A conflict could suck in these countries and others not far from the most strategic military outpost in Africa, tiny Djibouti, where several global powers including the US and China have their only military bases on the continent.
• The Horn of Africa is also short water crossing away from Yemen and the rest of the Arabian Peninsula.
• Ethiopia already was drawing concern over a dispute with Egypt over a huge dam Ethiopia is completing on the Blue Nile.

Some key dates in Ethiopia’s history:

• The 4th century – Christianity becomes the state religion.
• 1855-1868 – Reign of Emperor Tewodros II, who lays the foundation for the modern Ethiopian state.
• 1896 – Invading Italian forces are defeated by Ethiopians at Adwa.
• 1935-1941 – Italy deposes Emperor Haile Selassie and annexed Ethiopia, before being driven out by British, Commonwealth, and Ethiopian forces.
• 1962 – Haile Selassie annexes Eritrea, which becomes an Ethiopian province.
• 1974 – Haile Selassie was overthrown in a military coup after government fails to deal with famine.
• 1977-79 – Thousands are killed in “Red Terror” orchestrated by Marxist dictator Mengistu Haile Mariam.
• 1984-85 – Another serious famine devastates much of the country.
• 1991 – Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front deposes Mengistu. Meles Zenawi establishes stability and achieves considerable economic progress in his 19-year authoritarian rule.
• 1993 – Eritrea becomes independent.
• 1999-2000 – Ethiopian-Eritrean border war.
• 2018 – Abiy Ahmed becomes prime minister and launches a reform program at home. Ends state of war with Eritrea.